Interesting where independent voters actually exerts influence on elections — and where they're blocked from doing so. Join us to hear Professor Thom Reilly of Arizona State University and Ellen Hayward of Coastal Carolina University will examine this phenomenon.
Forty-five percent of Americans now call themselves independent. Here's what that actually does to an election.A record 45% of U.S. adults identified as political independents in 2025 — the highest Gallup has measured since it began tracking party affiliation in 1988. That is not a rounding error. It is the largest single group in American politics, and it decides close races, reshapes primaries, and increasingly determines which candidates are viable at all. Yet in 16 closed-primary states, roughly 18.4 million registered independents are barred from voting in the taxpayer-funded primaries that narrow the field before they ever get a ballot
What we'll cover:
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The numbers, honestly. What the 45% figure does and doesn't mean, and why the "independents are secret partisans" claim is both partly true and badly overstated.
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Where they decide outcomes. Margin math in battleground states and the races that turned on unaffiliated voters.
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The primary problem. How closed primaries and party-registration rules subtract independents from the most consequential round of voting.
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What moves them. The issues, messages, and messengers independents respond to — and the pandering they punish.
Who should attend: independent and unaffiliated voters, election administrators and clerks, reform and civic organizations, political science and public policy faculty and students, journalists and editorial writers, candidates and campaign staff.
